In a nutshell
This study compared the effectiveness of a new model, called IVFpredict, to predict live birth rates following In-Vitro Fertilization.
Some background
In-Vitro Fertilization (IVF) is the most common form of fertility treatment. IVF involves harvesting mature eggs from the female, fertilizing the eggs with the male's sperm in a lab dish, and then implanting the fertilized eggs into the uterus (womb) lining three to five days after fertilization. Intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) is a method of fertilization often performed as part of IVF.
For a patient or a couple considering IVF treatment the most important goal is a live birth. It is important that the doctor is able to accurately predict the chances of a live birth.
The Templeton model has been the gold standard of prediction for the past 20 years. However, this model has become dated. The IVFpredict model has been developed more recently. Both models use criteria such as patient age, duration of infertility and pregnancy history, among other things. However, IVFpredict is more detailed, using past history of ICSI and whether donor or patient eggs were used.
Methods & findings
The authors examined patient records from 130,960 IFV cycles. There were 33,553 live births recorded. Both models underestimated the live birth rate in patients using donor eggs, particularly in women older than 38. In women aged 45 years or older the number of live births predicted by the Templeton model was only 8% of the observed live births, whereas with IVFpredict it was 84%. Additionally, in women over 38 years using their own eggs, the Templeton model over-predicted live birth rates by up to 36%.
The bottom line
IVFpredict is more accurate than the Templeton model for informing patients and doctors about the chances of a live birth following IVF treatment.
The fine print
This study was performed using patients from the UK only. More studies using non-UK patients are needed to assess the global effectiveness of IVFpredict.
What’s next?
If considering IVF treatment, talk to you doctor about live birth success rates.
Published By :
PLOS ONE
Date :
Apr 08, 2015
